2023 BL Mock Draft
Written by Lucky.
Headline: QBs fall, WRs rise in this mock draft
Post draft grades are really dumb. When somebody tries to assign a grade to a pick immediately after it happens and before anybody has played a snap, it’s entirely just a matter of judging others for how close they personally came to predicting things correctly. The Seahawks were infamously panned for their 2012 draft, receiving an F from multiple reputable sources in a draft where they selected Bobby Wagner in the 2nd round and Russell Wilson in the 3rd round. I repeat, post draft grades are really dumb. With that in mind, I assigned grades to every pick from our mock draft the other night. If you haven’t watched it yet, please take a look at the YouTube VOD. Cmass and the gang put a lot of work into it. Enjoy!
PANTHERS select QB Bryce Young (GRADE: B+)
Over the past week or two, Young seems to be increasingly seen as the guy in Carolina. As of the time of this writing, he is the overwhelming favorite (-1200 on FanDuel) to go number one. Young checks every single box you want other than size. At 5’10, 194, he is historically small for a first round quarterback. Though this slight frame comes with some injury concerns, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray’s success over the last decade has given GMs reason to believe sub 6’0 height is not the death sentence for a QB’s career it was once thought to be. Young brings top end pocket presence and leadership and can do everything with his arm you need your franchise quarterback to do.
TEXANS select EDGE Will Anderson (GRADE: A)
This pick was thought to be a lock for Quarterback since pretty much the day the season ended. Davis Mills had flashes the last two seasons, but he hasn’t done enough to prove he can be a franchise quarterback. In a draft where most analysts see a clear cut top-2 at the position, it felt like a lock to see CJ Stroud go here. But lately, reports have been coming out that the Texans may not be in love with another QB after Young. They won’t force the pick here, instead taking the top defender on most people’s boards. Will Anderson has shades of Von Miller, as an intelligent, physical, and hard working EDGE. He can rush the passer and set the edge in the run game. He has a high floor and a high ceiling.
CARDINALS select DT Jalen Carter (GRADE: B)
The Cardinals sit at an interesting point of the draft. Most expect the top two QBs to be off the board by now, but if Stroud is still there, expect the Cardinals to field trades from a number of teams looking to move up to jump the Colts to grab him. In this mock, the Cardinals stand pat, looking to the troubled Georgia DT Jalen Carter to shore up a defensive line with more holes than starting positions. If Carter can figure it out, he’ll be one of the top interior linemen in the league. His ceiling in terms of talent is a shade below Aaron Donald, he’s that good. However, he comes with a bit of baggage that GMs are going to have to make a decision on. The legal issues are mostly handled at this point, but his January arrest in a street-racing incident that resulted in the death of multiple people alongside his well documented conditioning and work ethic issues paints suggests some maturity issues that will give some GMs pause. If a team takes Carter in the top 5, it’s because he did a good job selling himself in private interviews to convince them he’s not that guy.
COLTS select QB Anthony Richardson (GRADE: B-)
This is the exciting pick. The Colts have been through 7 different starting quarterbacks since Andrew Luck surprisingly retired in 2018. When they finished this season with a top 5 pick, it seemed a given they would take one of the top quarterbacks available. With all but Bryce Young still on the board, the Colts can pick one of their top options here. The conversation between CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson is one of floor vs. ceiling. While Stroud is by no means a guarantee, he does come with a pro-ready arm, and the tools to adapt to most teams that might pick him. Richardson on the other hand has some questionable tape at college. He only started one season, and it wasn’t a good one from a passing standpoint. The appeal of Richardson is his physicals. He was by most metrics the most athletic quarterback to ever work out at the combine. He combines his size/speed combination with an arm that can make some truly impressive throws, both on and off schedule, and some great pocket presence. His inconsistency with his accuracy, timing and read progression is the big question that any team has to answer if they want him. While some want to compare him to Josh Allen with his accuracy issues in college, I think he projects more in the Jalen Hurts mold where his career success will depend on his future team being able to build a scheme around what makes him so special, rather than trying to coach him into something he’s not. This is one of the hardest picks to give a grade to because while we don’t really know what anybody is going to end up becoming at the NFL level, Richardson has the widest range of possible outcomes of all QBs. Stroud is a safer pick and I think this high in the draft, it’s tougher to take such a project when a relatively safer guy is available.
SEAHAWKS select QB CJ Stroud (GRADE: B+)
Speaking of safer, here’s my Seahawks. Full bias acknowledged, the top of my board goes Anderson, then Stroud, then Young, though I’d consider Young a bit of a 2b to Stroud’s 2a. The Seahawks have a big decision to make with this pick they received from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. The Seahawks have never picked this high in the Pete Carroll era, and you better believe they don’t expect to be here again. Geno Smith had a surprising pro bowl season, which he followed up with an extension to stay in Seattle for another three years. While this would seemingly take the Seahawks out of the running for a top QB, they structured the deal in a way that allows them to get out of it after a year with little to no negative impact. Geno is the QB for next year, but if the front office falls in love with a QB and he falls to 5, there should be no surprise if they take him, because they understand picking this high is rare and if you have a shot at a franchise QB, you can’t pass on him. With that in mind, if Stroud falls all the way to 5, I have to believe the Seahawks would enthusiastically call it in. Though they have big needs on the defensive line, Carter and Anderson are gone, and after them is a bit of a dropoff in terms of sure talent. Tyree Wilson is intriguing, but he doesn’t fit their 3-4 scheme very well, and this regime has never taken a cornerback before the third round, so Christian Gonzalez and Devon Weatherspoon are tough to mock here. CJ Stroud stands head and shoulders above every other available prospect in terms of positional value and ability level. If the board falls this way, I think the Seahawks would rush to send the pick in.
LIONS select CB Devon Witherspoon (GRADE: B+)
The Lions sit at an interesting spot. The top 5 is fairly consistent across a lot of boards. There are chances Jalen Carter slides because of maturity/work ethic concerns or Levis rises to jump into the top 5 if a team falls in love with him, but for the most part, the Lions are sitting at a spot where they should have their pick of the second tier guys in the draft. What the Lions need most is some guys in the trenches. A strong DT or center/guard would really help them win the way Dan Campbell wants to. The problem is if Jalen Carter doesn’t fall, there isn’t really an interior DL option at this point of the draft, and positionally, it’s risky to use such a high pick on interior OL. They are definitely a trade back option here, but if they keep the pick, going BPA is always a sound strategy in the NFL draft. Sometimes you just need to take the best guy on the board and figure the rest out later. That’s what the Lions did here. Devon Witherspoon is among the top CBs in the draft. I like the fit, he’s definitely the type to bite someone’s kneecaps off, I think he has the potential to be a strong difference maker at the next level. After signing Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and CJ Gardner Johnson, this pick rounds out an incredibly strong young secondary that can be the core of Dan Campbell’s defense.
RAIDERS select CB Christian Gonzalez (GRADE: B)
The Raiders have a big need at QB as well, and Levis is still on the board if they think he’s the one. However, it would be simply inaccurate to say that quarterback is their only need. I’m of the opinion that you shouldn’t draft a quarterback simply because you need one. Build up your team, find a strong core, then go get your guy. If you fall into position to draft a generational prospect, you shouldn’t pass on him. Otherwise it does your young QB no favors to throw them into an unwinnable situation. That’s the route the Raiders are taking here. With some very strong defensive options on the board, here they go with Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a great cover corner, he shadows his guy all over the field, and with his height, speed and explosiveness, his athleticism always keeps him in the play.
FALCONS select EDGE Tyree Wilson (GRADE: B+)
Tyree Wilson has a pretty high range for the upper tier of prospects in this class. I’ve seen him go as high as 3 and as low as 11. In this mock, he settles into the 8th pick to Atlanta. Atlanta has had a pretty nice offseason, They’ve acquired Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, Mike Hughes, and Jonnu Smith. They still need some help on the edge and interior OL, and quarterback is still a question mark for them, as Desmond Ridder is far from a lock to pan out, though it seems they’re content to give him the shot to run the offense this year. With Wilson falling to 8, this is a good opportunity to pick up a high ceiling guy. I’ve been a fan of Wilson for most of the draft process, with his NBA Center level of length and nonstop motor, he’s got all the traits you look for in a 4-3 DE at the next level. He has some question marks with regards to his pass rush plan and his playstyle limits his versatility to play multiple schemes, but he should step in on day one as a solid run stopper on the edge who can potentially be a 10+ sack some day with the right coaching.
BEARS select T/G Peter Skoronski (GRADE: B+)
After trading down from number one last month, the Bears find themselves in a position to address one of their many needs. In bringing back DJ Moore in the trade with the Panthers, they solidified their depth at WR. At this point they need help in the trenches. Justin Fields is looking like the future at QB, and they need to do what it takes to protect him. They’ve got a handful of options to pick from here, and I think Skoronski is the best option, because of his versatility. Skoronski could be a pro bowler at tackle, but he projects to be even better long term as a guard, so the Bears can move him to wherever they need him the most (which at this point is pretty much any spot on the line)
EAGLES select HB Bijan Robinson (GRADE: B)
Robinson is going to be a hell of a player. I am firmly on record saying running backs should never be taken in the first round. The position naturally has a short longevity, and it is relatively easy to find comparable production in much later rounds. That being said, if you’re going to take a running back in the first round, this is one of the best situations to do it in. Not only is Robinson one of the most talented players overall in this draft, but the Eagles are in a unique situation for a top 10 pick in that they just don’t have many holes. You should never take a running back high in the draft to kick off a rebuild (looking at you, Giants). Robinson holds value, but he’s not going to transform a mediocre team. What he can do is help an established team get over the top. For that reason, I think he’s a far better pick for the Eagles than he would be for most teams who will have the opportunity to select him.
TITANS select WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (GRADE: A-)
I love Smith-Njigba. He’s far and away the best wide receiver in this draft. He has an injury history, but it doesn’t sound like that should be a huge cause for concern moving forward. What he can do is get open. Detractors will point to his relatively slow 40-yard dash time, but he’s an elite route runner with great body control. He’s going to be a 100-catch guy. On an Ohio State football team that had two other top 11 picks in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, he might be the best of the three. The Titans have a gigantic hole at WR and this pick just makes too much sense for them.
TEXANS select WR Quentin Johnston (GRADE: C-)
I don’t love Quentin Johnston. Everybody wants to find the next DK Metcalf or Calvin Johnson, the tall guy with burner speed. But I don’t think Johnston is that guy. At just under 6’3, running a 4.49, he won’t be physically imposing at the NFL level in the way he was able to be against Big 12 defenses. One of his biggest built in advantages, his 96th percentile wingspan, doesn’t even get used often as he tends to body catch everything thrown to him. As far as getting open, if you’re going to be a guy with a limited route tree, you need to be absolutely elite at the limited routes you run, and though he does have some solid RAC ability, I think he’s going to be too easy to take out of the game to be worth taking this high. He seems like more of a late first, early second guy to me.
JETS select TE Dalton Kincaid (GRADE: C+)
This is an interesting pick because while I think Kincaid is a really nice prospect, and I could absolutely see him going here, I think this is a really deep TE class, and you could find another starter in rounds 2 or 3 at the position. Especially for a team with a lot of needs in the trenches, I think tight end is a tough sell at pick 13 in terms of positional value. That being said, the Jets have some really strong weapons on offense already, and adding arguably the best pass catching tight end in the draft would make them a tough matchup once they find their QB.
PATRIOTS select LB Drew Sanders (GRADE: D)
While I didn’t love the last two picks, this is the first one that has me just scratching my head. The value here just doesn’t make sense from a positional standpoint. Sanders has a strong argument for being the first off-ball linebacker taken, but I don’t expect to see any going in the first round. The position has been devalued over the years, with the trend towards starting lineups including a slot corner over a third linebacker. While run stopping is still valued, it’s not a game-changing talent, and it can be tough to get on the field if you can’t cover the pass consistently, and he has very little experience there. Teams may expect to be able to move him to the edge on third down, but at 232 pounds, he is nowhere near quick enough to overcome his size concerns. While the upside is there as he does have a good level of athleticism, the overall package just doesn’t suggest top 15 pick to me.
PACKERS select S/CB Brian Branch (GRADE: B+)
Brian Branch is a fun, versatile player here. As mentioned above, the league’s trend towards slot corner becoming a starting position makes Branch an even more valuable player. A safety/slot combo player gives a team good flexibility to move guys around and keep the offense guessing, especially as the Packers have another guy like that (Darnell Savage) already on the roster. Branch is a smart safety who can also come into the box as a plus run defender.
COMMANDERS select OT Darnell Wright (GRADE: B-)
The position is a good choice, but I’m surprised to see Wright be the first first pure tackle off the board. Paris Johnson Jr has received some buzz in the top 10 and generally is seen as a safer choice near the top of the draft. I would love to give more in depth analysis but I can’t even pretend like I know a single thing about offensive line play outside of what I read on. What’s important here is that the Commanders address an offensive line that finished 26th in pressure rate allowed last year and 27th in yards before contact on run plays. Offensive line is never sexy, but you win championships in the trenches.
STEELERS select CB Deonte Banks (GRADE: C+)
Joey Porter Sr. is punching air right now. His son, Joey Porter Jr. has been mocked to the Steelers at 17 since mock drafts existed. The fit just seems perfect. And it feels like the Steelers overthought this one a little bit too much, as Porter looks like a strong number 3 CB in this draft. That being said, while the name isn’t an A+ fit, the player selected is a solid one. Banks presents a lot to be excited about. An athletic monster, Banks gives you a lot to like in the physicals department. There are questions about his technique and pure coverage ability that he’ll have to answer and time will tell if Banks could end up being the better player, but with Porter Jr. on the board, this pick feels like a small reach.
LIONS select EDGE Myles Murphy (GRADE: B+)
After going cornerback at pick 6, the Lions double down on defense and go with the former 5-star recruit out of Clemson. Though he never quite lived up to his recruit status, Murphy is a high ceiling EDGE who could be one of the most purely talented players in this draft. Commonly in the top 10 on draft boards at the end of the season, Murphy has slipped a bit as people wonder if his lack of production is a sign that the athleticism doesn’t match the overall ability. This is an awesome use of a second first round pick to grab somebody with high upside who could end up one of the best players in this class.
BUCCANEERS select OT Paris Johnson Jr. (GRADE: B+)
I touched on it a bit when discussing the Commanders pick, but I would have expected Paris Johnson Jr to be off the board by now. To make things simple here, the Bucs need OL help. Tom Brady isn’t around anymore to mask poor OL play with quick decision making and elite pocket presence. Grabbing your LT of the future will never be a bad pick to me.
SEAHAWKS select EDGE Lukas Van Ness (GRADE: B)
I’m not completely sold on the scheme fit here. The Seahawks have shifted towards more of a 3-4 front and Van Ness projects as a 4-3 DE. However, going BPA at a valuable position is hardly ever a bad idea. LVN has a strong power profile and is a true three down player. Pete Carroll loves him some multi-sport athletes, and LVN’s hockey background is sure to get the gum-chewing juices flowing. After going QB at pick 5, the Seahawks still have to address their holes in the front seven, and Van Ness presents great value at pick 20.
DOLPHINS – PICK FORFEITED
The Dolphins lost this pick trying to tamper and bring Tom Brady to Miami. They didn’t even get him. Dummies.
CHARGERS select CB Joey Porter Jr. (GRADE: B+)
It’s hard to know exactly what the Chargers have at cornerback next year. JC Jackson was supposed to be a huge get last year, but he struggled before going on IR early in the year. Joey Porter Jr is a tough, physical cornerback who has the NFL pedigree to back his resume up. Shades of Brandon Browner in the Legion of Boom if he had a little more technique and a little less attempted murder in him. Guys like that set the tone for the whole team.
RAVENS select EDGE Nolan Smith (GRADE: A)
I love this pick. I think Nolan Smith falling this far would be a big mistake. Sub 4.4 40s with comparable agility testing at almost 240 pounds doesn’t grow on trees. This guy is what would happen if DK Metcalf decided to gain 10 pounds and play defensive end. He uses his speed and flexibility well in pass rushing, and was even a plus run defender, setting the edge well despite his size limitations. On top of that, he was the captain and leader of Georgia’s elite defense. I think whatever team ends up with Nolan Smith should be enthusiastic, especially if you get him down in the 20s.
VIKINGS select QB Hendon Hooker (GRADE: D-)
I’ve grown increasingly worried that the Seahawks will package their second round picks to move back into the late first to draft Hendon Hooker. I’m not against him as a pick per se, but he’s not the guy you move up for. And he’s DEFINITELY not the guy you take when you already have a solid QB like Kirk Cousins on the roster. Already 25 years old and coming off an ACL injury, there just isn’t much to get excited about. If you want to take him in the third round for insurance as a medium floor, low ceiling backup, I can get on board with it. But especially with Levis still on the board, I just don’t think Hooker is the guy you use a first round pick on.
JAGUARS select DT Calijah Kancey (GRADE: B-)
The attempted comps are obvious. As an undersized DT out of Pittsburgh with elite quickness, there were always going to be people who tried to compare Kancey to Aaron Donald. Kancey’s spider chart is hilarious, looking like a reverse pac-man, sitting under the 5th percentile in height, weight and arm length, while pacing 95th and 99th percentile in 10 yard splits and 40 yard dash. They simply don’t make DTs that quick. They also don’t make em that small. His 30 ⅝ inch arms are in the 1st percentile all time for DTs. That is a significant deficiency for a position that needs to grapple inside. The tape shows this as well, as he has some really strong pass rushing ability, but it’s hard to see him ever becoming a true three down lineman as he is too easy to take out of the game in run situations.
GIANTS select C John Michael Schmitz (GRADE: B)
Here goes another one of my draft crushes. JMS is the top center in this draft in my opinion. A highly intelligent shot caller, he can be the anchor of the OL for the next 5-10 years. That’s big for the Giants, who just signed Daniel Jones to a 40 million dollar per year deal. The only thing keeping this pick from a higher grade is positional value, as center is typically not seen as a premium position.
COWBOYS select TE Michael Mayer (GRADE: B+)
This feels like great value for Mayer. Nobody should be surprised if he goes in the early to mid teens on draft night. The athletic profile is nothing too special, but the production speaks for itself. He’s the most well balanced tight end in the draft, projecting as a plus blocker and pass catcher. The Cowboys have a really nice, well rounded offense that looks strong everywhere except for tight end after Dalton Schultz’ departure. With Mayer slotted in, the Cowboys have little to no weaknesses on offense.
BILLS select WR Jordan Addison (GRADE: B)
After Stefon Diggs, the Bills wide receiver depth chart includes Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty. I’ve gotta be honest, I haven’t even heard of those last two. Josh Allen leads a Bills team that is carried by their QB and defense. Diggs needs a little more help in the passing game. Addison is one of the top route runners in the class, constantly finding holes in the defense and creating separation from DBs. He has some size concerns (173 lbs) and his hands aren’t quite as sure as you would want out of a slot receiver, but he has a proven track record producing at Pittsburgh and USC. For a team needing help at wide receiver, you can do far worse.
BENGALS select RB Jahmyr Gibbs (GRADE: C)
I don’t like it. I’m a running back truther. I think Gibbs is a good player. I think if your team drafts him, you will have fun watching him. I don’t think you should take running backs in the first round unless they are truly generational, and even then, it’s not for everybody. It’s just too easy to find replacement production elsewhere. As far as this fit goes, Joe Mixon has given Cincinnati fans a number of reasons to believe he won’t be around long term. Running back is definitely a need, and Gibbs would probably slot in for 200+ touches as a rookie, with his skillset as a receiver being a huge plus. I’ve just seen too many running backs not bring back the value it took to acquire them.
SAINTS select WR Zay Flowers (GRADE: B)
The Saints WR room is interesting. Chris Olave looks good, then it’s Michael Thomas (does he even count these days?) and nobody else. The Saints brought Derek Carr in. Some people aren’t sold but I still think Carr could be more than good enough if given a strong supporting cast. I like Flowers a lot here. If I wanted to be picky, I’d say his historically short arms can’t possibly be a good thing in a position that requires your hands to reach a ball before somebody else, but I think he’s a weapon that a creative offensive coordinator would have a lot of fun trying to find a way to incorporate. His route running plus his after the catch ability make him a dynamic threat that could be a very good receiver in the NFL.
EAGLES select OT Broderick Jones (GRADE: B)
The rich get richer. The Eagles had one of the best offensive lines in 2022. It was the foundation of an offense that finished second in the league in scoring last year. After adding the best back in the draft at pick 10, the Eagles add incredible depth with one of the top tackles in the draft. Lane Johnson is going to be 33 at the start of the season, it’s not too early to start planning for a succession strategy. This pick gives a team that has super bowl goals the depth it needs to sustain an unfortunate injury while also preparing them for the future with a good young OL prospect.
CHIEFS trade pick 32 to the BUCCANEERS for picks 50, 153, a 2024 first and a 2024 second. BUCCANEERS select QB Will Levis (GRADE: D)
I feel like I need to evaluate this pick in two ways. There’s the trade and then there’s the pick. The trade was awful. Like truly, this would go down as one of the worst trades value wise in the history of the NFL draft. The trade gets an F-. Let’s get that out of the way. The pick itself in a vacuum is better. Because of the value of the position, Levis has been seen as a top 5 pick for most of the draft process. If he were to fall down this far, it would be likely that somebody would come calling for pick 32, to get the benefit of the 5th year option. Will Levis is the Josh Allen comp for this draft class. He’s got a cannon for an arm and shows good mobility at a prototypical QB size. However, he struggled in college to consistently move the ball with his accuracy and consistency issues. He suffers from some of the same issues Anthony Richardson does, he did not have a lot of support from his scheme and receivers, which make his numbers a little worse than they would be otherwise, but he still presents as a high ceiling, low floor prospect. The Bucs have a need at QB and would definitely make for a good Levis candidate, I just think the price they paid to move back into the first is way too much for such a low floor prospect. They’d be better off just taking him at 19 than trading this much capital to draft him later.
